Power to the Addlestonians! (Part Deux)

Congratulations to newly elected councillor for Addlestone, convicted drink-driver John Raymond Furey

As a bringer of news, a purveyor of up-to-date and highly localised information, an invaluable resource at the forefront of Addlestonian current affairs, I view it as an integral part of my role to make the events I depict and your experience as readers as stimulating as they can be. One way to achieve this is by creating a sense of suspense, or waiting over four months to follow up on a blog post.

Cast your minds back to the summerlike days of early May when people far and wide were called on to vote in the English local elections. Perhaps it was the sweltering heat on polling day that caused 74% of Addlestonians to forget there were local elections taking place, but if there's one thing Surrey County Council can't control it's the weather, so we might as well have enjoyed it while we could. As it happened we had ample opportunities to roast ourselves Addlestonian-red from July onwards, but those days are rapidly becoming distant memories now that Autumn is setting in and temperatures are plummeting mercilessly. On the upside, the maggots in my wheelie bin are finally dying.

So if you missed it, and the figures say you probably did, you might be interested to know that the 26% of us who tottered down to the ballot boxes on 3rd May 2013 voted as follows:

2009 comparison 
(County and EU):

Con 51%, 

Ukip 22%, 

Lib Dems 14%, 

Labour and Co-Operative Party 10%, 
Equal Parenting Alliance 2%

(Turnout: 35%)

This depicts a different state of affairs from the results of The Addlestonian's exit poll back in May, which at the time suggested the people of Addlestone would be represented by a Ukip/Monster Raving Loony Party coalition. This never quite materialised, but you'll have to take my word for it as the poll was never programmed to finish and is still open to votes, making it frankly pointless to look at now. Nonetheless, people still keep voting every now and again. Knock yourselves out.

As you can see, not all the parties taking part in the 2009 County elections fancied a piece of the action last May, but those who did experienced the same setbacks and gains as reflected in most other parts of Surrey. Last year I partly attributed Ukip's 2009 result to the European elections taking place on the same day, however they and Labour saw a further increase in support this year, explaining where the Monster Raving Loony Party's votes went eventually. TMRLP's result still surged to a whopping 2% of Addlestone's vote though, achieving the same status as the Equal Parenting Alliance did four years ago.

Following the elections, The Addlestonian contacted each candidate asking them to enlighten their electorate (that's YOU noble folks) with their thoughts on the results. Surprisingly (or not), all but the coalition partners responded in varying levels of detail...

Labour

"The people are sending a message in this election showing that they are not happy with what is happening locally and nationally. However, they are showing it in different ways - voting for different parties. The Labour percentage share of the vote in Addlestone has doubled since the 2009 county elections but we still have a long way to go." 

- Arran Richard Neathey

Ukip

"UKIP is catching up on the Tories. Does this matter? What matters is the future of the country. Jobs. Getting rid of debt, both national and personal. Regaining prosperity and pride. I object to parties for whom staying in power is a top priority. The Lib Dem sign “winning here” implies a wish for power, rather than a wish to cure the country’s ills. Only UKIP has the policy to cure those ills. The public now accepts this. [...] UKIP scored around 25% in the County Council election. Even more worrying for the other parties, who wish to cling on to power, is the continuous rise in the UKIP vote. The other parties do not deserve to survive. Labour no longer stands up for jobs and wages. The Conservative party is not conserving the country, the countryside, or indeed anything much. The liberal democrats want to entrust our liberty and democracy to Brussels. UKIP will continue to rise unless the other parties change their policies dramatically."

- Toby Mickelthwaite

Official Monster Raving Loony Party

"HI, eye well write somethink up or down in the next few days"

- Keith David Collett

If, on the off chance, I ever receive that message then I'll be sure to post it here. I don't underestimate how challenging it must be for Mr. Collett to find the time in amongst the important work he does.

The next time The Addlestonian will be getting political will be in the European elections of 2014, unless of course an emergency referendum is called for independence for Addlestone before then. A man can dream.

Power to the Addlestonians!

As spring settles in and its effects start to be felt throughout Addlestone - the longer days, the joyful chirping of birds, the pollen-induced scratchy, leaking eyes and breathing difficulties - a sense of change and rebirth hang in the air, tying in neatly with the county elections taking place across the country tomorrow (if change is what you want, I must add in the name of easily perceivable neutrality).

It seems like only yesterday I sat hunched over my laptop reflecting on the 2012 local elections which saw a measly 26% of disaffected Addlestonians visit their polling stations to elect their Runnymede councillor. A Conservative majority re-emerged despite a slight dip in support, not to mention the Monster Raving Loony Party's phenomenal gains in Addlestone North. Yes, they fielded their candidate wisely in Addlestone North.

This year, though, the mood among Addlestonians could be quite different indeed if last year's by-election results in neighbouring New Haw and Chertsey are anything to go by:

May 2012 --> September 2012

New Haw

Con 53% --> 51%

Lab 20% --> 22% ^

UKIP 16% --> 18% ^

Lib Dem - 11% --> 8%

Chertsey Meads

Con 50% --> 40%

UKIP 23% --> 28% ^

Lab 19% --> 28% ^

Lib Dem 8% --> 3%

OMRLP N/A --> 0.8% ^

The trend would suggest the coalition parties are about to take a hit around Surrey with Labour and UKIP picking up the votes, even if the winning party remains the same. Although, now that Addlestone Bournesiders will have the chance to support Crazy Crab this year along with our northern Addlestonian friends, it's anybody's guess what the outcome might be. With that in mind, let's have a look at the folks who will be vying to represent the Addlestone posse tomorrow:

 

Crazy Crab, Official Monster Raving Loony Party

 

Andrew Falconer, Lib Dems

 

John Furey, Conservatives

 

Toby Micklethwait, UKIP

 

Arran Neathey, Labour

How will YOU sway tomorrow, Addlestonians? Take part in the poll below to let us all know, and tweet @theaddlestonian!

Who will / did you vote for in the 2013 County Elections?
	Crazy Crab (MRLP)
	Andrew Falconer (LD)
	John Furey (Con)
	Toby Micklethwait (UKIP)
	Arran Neathey (Lab)
	I won't / didn't vote
	Deliberately spoiled my ballot paper
	I still don't get what's going on

Addlestone's Political Current

What more efficient way to divide opinions on a place than to point out its political leanings? With roughly half the country's population being of a red disposition and the other being blue at any one moment, revealing where a town lies on the political spectrum will spark instant admiration in one half and revulsion in the other (or at least among those who could care a hang either way). So it's with some apprehension that I present to you Addlestone's results in this year's local elections on 3rd May.

Due to its population size, Addlestone is split into two wards of just over 8,000 people each: Addlestone Bourneside and Addlestone North. Addlestone North represents the northern part of the town, Addlestone Bourneside represents the south. This begs the question, why not just call Addlestone Bourneside 'Addlestone South'? This puts an enormous amount of pressure on Addlestonians to find the correct polling station, especially as the ward boundary runs diagonally rather than horizontally, not to mention that most residents are probably oblivious as to what the term 'Bourneside' refers to (if they're anything like me, that is).

Addlestone wards within Runnymede within Surrey

It is in fact the River Bourne, which runs through Addlestone more or less parallel to the town's (and the borough of Runnymede's) eastern border, which is itself represented by the River Wey.

The River Bourne that runs through Addlestone is not to be confused with the River Bourne that runs through neighbouring Chertsey. These are two separate rivers which just happen to have identical names. Oh, and they join at one end. Definitely two separate rivers.

Just to add to the confusion, both River Bournes aren't rivers at all, but streams, as the word bourne (Anglo-Saxon: 'stream') would suggest. Some believe this is what inspired Robert Ludlum to write his spy fiction thriller The Bourne Identity.

But enough about troubled waters and tenuous pop culture references. The results were as follows:

Addlestone North
2012: Official Monster Raving Loony Party 9% | Lib 12% | Lab 34% | Con 45% (turnout: 24%)

        2011: Monster Raving Loony Party 3% | Lib 11% | Lab 28% | Con 58% (turnout: 35%)

        2010: [also general election] Lib 42% | Con 58% (turnout: 61%)

        2009: [county + European elections]

        2008: UKIP 7% | Lib 12% | Lab 16% | Con 65% (turnout: 28%)

Addlestone Bourneside

2012: Lib 10% | Lab 32% | Con 58% (turnout: 28%)

        2011:  Lib 11% | Lab 28% | Con 61% (turnout: 39%)

        2010: [also general election] Lib 31% | Con 68% (turnout: 64%)

        2009: [county + European elections]

        2008: Indie 10% | Lab 66% | Con 72% (turnout: 33%)

A number of conclusions can be drawn from these results. Firstly, the Monster Raving Loony Party thinks it has a chance in Addlestone North. They may well be right, as their share of the vote has increased threefold since last year, even with the same parties in opposition. In fact they seem to have gained support solely at the expense of the Conservatives in what has been a staunchly Conservative area for 14 years. The OMRLP candidate subsequently offered an insight into his success in a comment on a Get Surrey article:

"not many of the candidates did make an effort, but I did, over 2,000 flyers were posted though (sic) letters (sic) boxes, and 2 1/2 days of noking (sic) on doors, 500 handed out to passing people in the Addlestone North area, it would have been a lot more, but bad weather stopped me,

Crazy Crab OMRLP 

a big thank you to all 99 voters,"

If their vote share triples again next year, then Addlestone North will be one monster raving loony place.

Apart from the Loony kids on the block, the parties on offer have mainly been the mainstream three with the odd other fringe or independent candidate here and there. All in question appear to dip in and out of the fun and games when it suits them. 

Addlestone Bourneside, an even more staunchly Conservative area as yet under no threat from any surreal, existentialist lunatics, has seen a consistently higher voter turnout than its northern neighbours over the last four years. What exactly it is about the southern ward that makes it more likely to vote, I could only speculate on purely random and tentative grounds. So here I go: Bourneside has three polling stations whereas North just has two.

When I describe Addlestone as a Conservative area I refer of course to her behaviour at the ballot box. In other words, the activity of the minority who know which of their local buildings spends one day a year as a polling station and use it for that reason. Given that both Addlestone North and Bourneside were identified in 2010 by the Surrey Lifelong Learning Partnership as two areas with the greatest concentrations of people in Runnymede without a qualification to speak of, not forgetting that Bournesiders rank in Surrey's top 20 for being simultaneously out of employment, education and training, as well as for having children affected by income deprivation, you might wonder who exactly is voting for a party that pledges incessantly to slash the very same people's benefits whilst encouraging them away from Jeremy Kyle to arrange crisp packets or mark down near-expired curries. Indeed, that's what the Conservative candidate Cherith Mary Simmonds assured me was one of her priorities when she paid me a visit during her canvassing rounds, not that these are policies relevant to a local election. Call me crazy, but I suspect their support isn't coming from here:

Surrey Towers, Addlestone Bourneside

In short, the more affluent Addlestonians appear to be ruling the Addlestoners.

So what could next year have in stall for Addlestone's local election results? Well, of course it completely depends on who fancies troubling themselves to stand as a candidate. In the last County elections of 2009 the Addlestone County Division produced the following results:

Equal Parenting Alliance 2%

Labour and Co-Operative Party 10%

Lib Dems 14%

UKIP 22%

Con 51%
(Turnout: 35%)

As the current decline in support for the Conservatives is much gentler in Addlestone and surrounding areas than it is for the rest of England, a straight competition between Lib / Lab / Con will likely still see them re-emerge with a majority in Addlestone, contributing to a Tory majority in Surrey as a whole. However, if an increasingly popular UKIP plan on making an appearance again then they will most likely bring the Tories down a peg or two. Although their strong results in 2009 can be partly attributed to the EU elections on the same day, which won't be the case next year, YouGov polls in recent months show that UKIP have been consistently snatching 11-12% of 2010 Tory voters. Repeated around the county, Surrey could even end up with no overall control for the first time in 15 years for that very reason.

Of course, the big question is whether the Monster Raving Loony Party will take on the Addlestone County Division in 2013. If they do, then we'd better pray that none of the major parties decide not to join in, otherwise I foresee a George Galloway style spring in what would become the Loony heartlands of Addlestone.

Sources:

www.getsurrey.co.uk

www.runnymede.gov.uk

www.yougov.co.uk